There’s a puzzle in the housing market that doesn’t seem to add up: prices keep climbing, but fewer homes are selling. How do those two go together?

The most recent INE figures put the median around €2,076 per square metre, up roughly 17% on a year earlier. At the same time, the number of homes that actually changed hands fell about 9% early this year. So: expensive, and slowing on sales.

Why

The simplest explanation is the monthly payment. With Euribor creeping back up, borrowing got heavier, and plenty of would-be buyers either dropped out or eased off the gas. Sellers, meanwhile, are in no rush to cut their asking price — they hold.

The national numbers hide very different maps. In Greater Lisbon the median sits near €3,439/m², the Algarve around €3,139, and the Porto Metropolitan Area about €2,305. This is where the eternal Vale do Sousa argument comes in: someone working in Porto and doing the math starts eyeing towns like Lousada, where the square metre still lets your wallet breathe. Fewer sales doesn’t mean a frozen market — it means a market choosing more carefully.

For years, the foreign buyer was the fixed character in any conversation about housing in Portugal. The latest INE data now tells a different story: early in 2026, purchases by non-residents fell to 1,770 units, down 15.6% on the previous year.

It is not an isolated detail. Over the same period, the total number of homes sold dropped 8.7%, to 37,745. In other words, fewer sales to everyone — and foreigners, who helped push prices up in the most coveted areas, are clearly easing off.

High prices, cooling demand

The paradox is that prices are still at record highs, with the average value around 263,000 euros. But there are signs of fatigue: the year-on-year rise slowed for the first time in nearly two years. Higher interest rates, tighter rules for some visas and prices that price buyers out all help explain the retreat.

For anyone house-hunting in Portugal, this does not mean bargains are coming — it means a slightly less frantic market, where there may be room to negotiate. For sellers, the warning is the opposite: the era of “list today, close tomorrow” may be ending.

See also: average house prices at record highs. The official data is on the INE portal.

When people talk about house prices, they usually reach for a single number. But INE data for early 2026 shows two very different realities under the same roof: existing homes rose 19.7% year-on-year, while new builds advanced 12.6%.

At first glance it looks like a technical detail. It is not. It means that older housing, long the cheaper option, is getting more expensive faster than newly built homes — and the gap between what used to be affordable and what was top of the range is closing.

Why older homes are surging

Several forces are pushing up the price of existing homes: not enough new supply, location (older homes are often in the most sought-after centres), and buyers who, priced out of new builds by scarcity or cost, pile into the existing market instead. The result: more demand chasing the same ageing stock.

For house-hunters, the practical takeaway is that the old rule “older always pays off” is no longer automatic. In some areas, carefully comparing price per square metre between new and old can throw up surprises — and with demand cooling across the market, there is room to negotiate that did not exist a year ago.

See also: foreign buyers are purchasing fewer homes. The official data is on the INE portal.

Anyone living in Lisbon hardly needs a study to know the city is expensive. But now there’s a number that stings: according to a recent analysis, Lisbon is the least affordable European capital for a single person on an average salary. Not the most expensive in absolute terms — but the one where what you pay and what you earn line up worst.

The maths is brutal. The median asking rent in the city sat around 21.8 euros per square metre in May, well above the national average of 16.3 euros. Add food, transport and energy on top, and the average wage evaporates before the month is out.

And it’s not just Lisbon

Porto squeezes too, with median rents around 16.4 euros per square metre. Nationally, there’s a curious wrinkle: rent inflation eased a little, partly because incentives for young buyers nudged some demand out of renting and into purchasing. But that’s relative relief — for those who can’t buy, the market remains a tough league.

The OECD has been insisting that Portugal needs more housing, and faster, especially at affordable prices. That’s the crux: without new supply, prices keep climbing. Market reports are available at idealista/data.

See also: the median house price hitting a new record.

If you’re house-hunting, you already suspected it: it keeps getting more expensive. The numbers from INE confirm what your wallet feels. In the first quarter of 2026, the average price of homes sold reached €262,839, an all-time high, up 13% on a year earlier.

And it’s not just the sale price. The median bank valuation hit €2,208 per square metre in May, also a record, with Lisbon and Porto pulling the figures up as usual.

A very gentle brake

There is, however, one detail worth noting. The housing price index rose 17.8% year on year — wild, yes, but it was the first slowdown since mid-2024, after touching 18.9% at the end of 2025. In other words: still rising fast, just a little less fast.

Families are starting to hesitate too. Between January and March, 37,745 homes were sold, down 8.7% on the same period in 2025. With Euribor stubbornly refusing to fall and prices sky-high, some would rather wait and see.

The picture is the familiar one, made worse: wages that don’t keep up, supply that doesn’t arrive, and a younger generation feeling that owning a home drifts a little further away each year.

See also: how the home loan instalment looks with Euribor and the IMT exemption for young buyers. The official data is at INE.

Good news for anyone living in a rented home who eyes the bill warily every month. In 2026 there are two numbers worth keeping in mind.

The first is the rent deduction in income tax, which rises to 900 euros. That means when settling up with the tax office, tenants can write off more than before of what they paid in rent over the year. And there is more good news on the horizon: from 2027, this limit rises again, to 1,000 euros.

And how much can the rent rise?

The second number reins in the bad side. The update of older rents is capped by a coefficient set by the statistics institute: 1.0224. In other words, landlords can raise the rent by at most 2.24 per cent, slightly above last year’s figure, but far from the increases that frighten.

Together, these are measures meant to give some breathing room to renters, in a country where finding a home at a reasonable price remains one of the biggest headaches. They do not solve the underlying problem, but they ease the end-of-month bill and the tax season.

The practical advice is the same as always: keep your rent receipts and make sure the contract is reported to the tax authority, because without that the deduction does not happen.

See also: Euribor squeezing those with home loans. More information at portugal.gov.pt.

Buying a first home is never cheap, but there is a support that many young people still do not fully know about: IMT Jovem. And in 2026 it became a little more generous.

The rule is this. Anyone up to age 35 buying their first own and permanent home can be exempt from transfer tax (IMT) and stamp duty. This year, the ceiling for full exemption rose from 324,058 to 330,539 euros, an increase of about 2 per cent set by the State Budget.

And above that figure?

Not everything is left out. Between 330,539 and 660,982 euros, a reduced 8 per cent rate applies to the portion above the first limit. Only above that second bracket do the normal rules kick in. So even those buying a pricier home can use part of the benefit.

In practice, this is thousands of euros staying in the pockets of people just starting out, at a moment when every euro counts toward the deposit and the renovations. It is worth doing the maths before you sign.

A useful caveat: the benefit has conditions, from age to value limits to never having owned a home before. Check it all carefully, ideally with help from someone who knows, so the deed brings no surprises.

See also: House prices hit a new record. Official details at the Tax Authority portal.

Anyone with a home loan has learned to watch a strange word like it’s the weather forecast: Euribor. And the forecast has turned upward again. With the European Central Bank setting its reference rate at 2.25 percent, Euribor follows, and the mortgage payment rises with it.

The mechanics are simple. Most loans in Portugal are pegged to six- or twelve-month Euribor. When it climbs, the payment only changes on the contract’s review date, but change it does. For a family with an average loan, that’s tens of euros more a month, adding up over the year.

What you can do

The first step is knowing which index you’re on and when the next review lands. Then it’s worth shopping around: renegotiating the spread, moving the loan to another bank, or weighing a mixed rate are all on the table. There’s no magic fix, but there’s room to manoeuvre.

There’s a flip side too. Higher rates cool demand and help slow the climb in prices, something already showing up in the latest figures. For house hunters, it’s a small relief; for those who already bought, it’s the bill arriving.

The golden rule is not to do the maths on the rosy scenario alone. Anyone borrowing today should simulate the payment with Euribor higher, to avoid nasty surprises down the line.

See also: House prices jump 10.2% to a new record.

There’s a new signal in the market, subtle but important. In the first quarter of 2026, the House Price Index rose 17.8% year on year, according to INE. Still sky-high, but it’s the first deceleration since the second quarter of 2024, right after a historic 18.9% jump at the end of 2025.

At the same time, fewer deals got done: 37,745 homes changed hands at the start of the year, an 8.7% drop on the same period in 2025. More cautious families, rising rates and lofty prices explain much of the pullback.

Braking or just a pause?

No one should mistake a slowdown for a fall. Prices are still rising, just at a slightly less dizzying pace. For sellers, it’s time to be realistic on the asking price; for buyers, there’s more room to negotiate than a year ago, even if the bar stays high.

The next quarter will tell us whether this is a real brake or just a breather.

See also: the new price record and the DBRS read. Official statistics at INE.

If you’re house-hunting, you already know: the bar has risen again. The median price to buy a home in Portugal reached €3,142 per square metre at the end of May, up 10.2% on a year ago and a new all-time high, the seventh month in a row setting a record.

The geography of your wallet hasn’t changed much. The Lisbon Metropolitan Area remains the priciest at €4,391/m², followed by the Algarve (€4,057/m²) and Madeira (€3,647/m²). At the other end, there are still interior regions where the numbers breathe a lot easier.

So what now?

The good news, if we can call it that, is that the climb is losing steam compared with the leaps of 2025. The bad news is that a record is a record, and the effort to buy stays heavy, especially for first-time buyers.

Those who can wait may see supply loosen; those who must buy now should negotiate hard and look beyond the big cities.

See also: transactions cooling and the rate effect. Official market data at INE.

There’s a classic trap for first-time buyers in Portugal: looking only at the listing price. That number is the start of the bill, not the end. Once you add taxes and fees, the real cost usually lands 7% to 10% above the price of the house.

Where the extra goes

The biggest piece is IMT, the property transfer tax. It’s tiered: the pricier the home, the higher the percentage, with exemptions for cheaper primary residences. Then there’s Stamp Duty, around 0.8% of the value. Add the deed and registration, and, if you take a mortgage, some bank and valuation costs on top.

If you buy through an agency, the commission is usually paid by the seller — but always confirm, as it shapes your negotiating room. And nearly everyone hires a lawyer or solicitor to check the registry and handle the process: money well spent to avoid nasty surprises about ownership.

Before you sign

Ask for a written breakdown of all costs before moving forward, and make sure you’ve sorted a NIF (tax number) and a Portuguese bank account — without them, the process stalls. Foreigners should also confirm the rules and timing for transferring funds, which can delay the deed.

Bottom line: budget a cushion of about 10% over the price and you’re unlikely to get a fright at the notary’s desk.

Good news for would-be buyers? Maybe. Rating agency DBRS has said the runaway rise in Portuguese house prices should lose steam in the coming period. Before the champagne, it’s worth understanding the “why” — because it has thorns.

Recall the starting point: house prices climbed 10.2% over the past year, to a fresh record of 3,142 euros per square metre. That pace can’t last forever, and DBRS points to three brakes coming into play.

The three brakes

The first is immigration. Fewer people arriving means less demand for housing, and demand has been one of the great engines of prices. The second is inflation, which erodes disposable income and leaves less room for a mortgage payment. The third is tighter credit — with rates and bank requirements filtering who can actually buy.

Note the irony: the slowdown wouldn’t come from more homes being built (what everyone wants), but mainly from fewer people able to buy. It’s relief from the wrong side of the equation.

What it means for you

Slowing isn’t falling. DBRS talks about slower growth, not a price drop or a bursting bubble — indeed, several experts insist Portugal has a housing crisis, but not a bubble. Anyone waiting for a crash to get into the market could be waiting a very long time.

The honest read: the rocket may become an aeroplane, but it’s still climbing. Building more homes is what would truly change the game.

Housing isn’t only about big national numbers. Sometimes the most interesting solution turns up in a town in the northern interior — and that’s exactly the case in Penafiel.

The council is moving ahead with a social-housing project that breaks from the usual apartment block: a collaborative, community-based housing solution, designed to tackle two problems at once — an ageing population and the shortage of affordable homes. The investment is around 2.7 million euros.

What “collaborative housing” means

The idea is simple and old, just dressed up in modern form: people (often older) living in their own homes but with shared spaces and services, to fight isolation and cut costs. Instead of everyone shut away in their own corner, there are common areas, mutual help, and a neighbourhood network built on purpose.

For a country ageing fast, where many older people live alone in big, cold houses, it’s a model that makes more and more sense. It links the problem of loneliness to that of expensive housing and tries to solve both in one go.

Small, but pointing the way

It’s no silver bullet for the national crisis — it’s a handful of homes in one town. But it’s the kind of experiment worth following: if it goes well, it could inspire other councils to see housing not just as bricks, but as community.

Sometimes innovation in housing isn’t a skyscraper in Lisbon — it’s a good idea in Penafiel.

Anyone house-hunting in Portugal already suspected it, but now there are numbers to confirm it: prices have hit a record again. The median value rose 10.2% in a year, reaching around €3,142 per square metre — a new all-time high. Put plainly, buying has never cost this much.

Regional gaps remain vast. Greater Lisbon leads with a median price of about €4,391/m², followed by the Algarve (around €4,057/m²) and Madeira (close to €3,647/m²). Looking for a home in Lisbon or along the Algarve coast is, today, an exercise for deep pockets — or for plenty of patience and a willingness to head inland.

But there’s an important nuance here, and this is where hope lives for those who haven’t bought yet. Several signs point to a gradual cooling. The ratings agency DBRS expects price growth to slow, driven by factors such as fewer immigrants, higher inflation and less generous credit. It doesn’t talk of a crash or a bubble — quite the opposite, it rules that out — but of a rise that’s running out of steam.

The listings themselves are starting to tell that story. In early 2026, 8% of homes for sale had cut their price — not much, but more than the 6% of a year earlier. It’s a timid, almost imperceptible move, but it shows some families are more cautious and that not everything sells at the first asking price.

The overall read, then, comes in two tempos. In the short term, the market stays expensive and tight, with limited supply holding values up. In the medium term, the expectation is of a gentle slowdown, without major jolts. For buyers, that’s not exactly immediate relief — but it may be the first sign that the runaway race of recent years is, at last, losing speed.

Anyone hunting for a flat to rent doesn’t need to be told it’s expensive. But now there’s an official figure — and, better still, you can see what it costs almost on your own doorstep.

Portugal’s National Statistics Institute has started publishing housing rents at local level, a new series built from Stamp Duty data the tax authority now shares. In practice, the vague national average gives way to municipality-by-municipality detail.

The first-quarter picture

The median rent for new contracts settled at 9.46 euros per square metre at the start of 2026 — a 9.1% jump on the same period last year. Translated to a 70-square-metre flat, that’s around 660 euros a month at the median — and that’s the median: in Lisbon, Porto and the Algarve the numbers climb well above.

The phrase to hold onto is “new contracts.” People who’ve rented the same place for years usually pay far less; the shock lands mainly on those moving now, those arriving from abroad, and young people leaving home. It’s the old gap between those who got into the market early and those knocking on the door today.

Why these numbers matter

Having data at local level won’t lower rents, but it changes the conversation. Councils, investors and families can argue with facts instead of hunches, and policies like affordable rents or rental support can finally be aimed where the squeeze is tightest.

For now, here’s the cold confirmation of what everyone already felt in their wallet: renting in Portugal keeps rising faster than wages.