Food prices in Europe now have a bigger enemy than war — this summer's heatwaves
This summer's heatwaves are set to push eurozone food prices up more in 2027 than the Iran conflict, says Oxford Economics. The ECB found the 2022 heatwave added 0.67 points to European food inflation — with southern Europe hit hardest.
Next year’s supermarket bill is being written right now, in fields baking under the sun. Economists are warning that this summer’s heatwaves are now a bigger threat to Europe’s food prices than the war in Iran — because damaged harvests are set to outweigh the fading effect of pricier oil and fertiliser.
Why do heatwaves push food prices up?
Because they ruin production long before it reaches a shelf. The warning comes from Oxford Economics, via senior economist Tomas Dvorak, and the European Central Bank has the numbers to back it: the 2022 European heatwave added 0.67 percentage points to European food inflation — 0.78 points in the eurozone — and the effect was strongest precisely in southern Europe, where Portugal lives. Farmers are already reporting smaller fruit and stunted crops this summer.
Wasn’t food inflation coming down?
It was — which is what makes the warning awkward. Eurozone food inflation fell from 2.5% in December 2025 to 1.6% in June, the lowest reading since mid-2021. The risk is that the relief gets interrupted in 2027 by what the heat is doing to harvests now. And the ECB adds a long-term footnote: a 2022-style heatwave under 2035 climate conditions would be worth roughly a full percentage point of food inflation.
Portugal knows both ends of this problem — the fields that suffer in the heat and the support that arrives from Brussels. Just this week we covered how fertiliser costs exploded and the Commission handed Portuguese farmers 162 million euros. Official European inflation data lives at Eurostat; the heat data, unfortunately, is right outside the window.
By Beatriz Mota
Image: Kolforn / Wikimedia Commons (CC BY-SA 4.0)
