Diesel goes up 3.5 cents on Monday. That is 1.75 euros more for a 50-litre tank
For the week of 24 to 30 August, ACP expects diesel to rise 3.5 cents to around 2.072 euros a litre and petrol 2.5 cents to 1.989. The fuel tax discount could still soften the blow.
If your tank is running low, fill it this weekend. The Automóvel Club de Portugal expects diesel to gain about 3.5 cents a litre on Monday, with unleaded petrol up 2.5 cents.
If that holds, diesel averages 2.072 euros a litre and petrol 1.989, measured against the daily average prices published by DGEG, the national energy regulator. Put in terms of a tank, 50 litres of diesel moves from roughly 101.85 euros today to 103.60. That is 1.75 euros. For petrol the gap is 1.25 euros a fill.
It does not sound like much. It starts to, once you multiply it across a working year: a driver covering 15,000 kilometres at six litres per hundred burns around 900 litres, so this single increase adds about 31 euros a year.
Why prices are climbing again
The reason sits a long way from the forecourt. October Brent is trading near 93 dollars, its highest in a month, after gaining almost five per cent over the week. Uncertainty about the war in Iran and about the Strait of Hormuz keeps weighing on supply, and the market reacts to every headline.
Then there is the exchange rate. Crude is priced in dollars, so the conversion matters: with the dollar sliding, the weekly rise in euro terms came to 3.9 per cent, at 79.54 euros a barrel. We follow these swings in our markets tracker, updated through the week.
The tax discount is the missing piece
Those figures are estimates made before Friday’s market close. Final prices are only set afterwards.
And then the government’s mechanism kicks in, adjusting the discount on the fuel tax whenever prices move. When fuel goes up, the discount tends to widen and the increase that reaches drivers is smaller. It cuts the other way too: in the week of 10 to 16 August, when markets took twelve cents off diesel, a trim to the tax discount kept two of them and drivers only saw ten.
As always, it pays to compare before filling up. Within a single municipality the spread between the cheapest and dearest pump can exceed ten cents a litre, which across a full tank is more than this week’s rise.
By Beatriz Mota
Infographic: Tugadaily · data from ACP and DGEG