New polls in Portugal keep PS ahead — while AD and Chega fight over second by decimals
Two polls published on 16 July put PS in front: Intercampus has 23.3% against AD's 20% and Chega's 19.4%, while the Catholic University has PS and AD tied at 29%. Housing, health and education weigh on the government's ratings.
Two polls on the same day, two different photographs of the country — and one thing in common: PS stays in front. Intercampus, with fieldwork from 9 to 14 July, gives the Socialists 23.3% of voting intentions, down a point from June. The news is behind them: AD reclaims second place with 20% and Chega slips to third with 19.4% — a statistical tie where the podium order changes with the week.
What do Portugal’s July 2026 polls actually say?
That the race is tighter than it looks. The Catholic University’s barometer for RTP came out the same day, with fieldwork from 6 to 10 July, and there PS and AD are level at 29%, with Chega on 21%. Methodologies and dates differ, but the combined reading is clear: the Socialist lead exists, it has just shrunk — and second place is being argued over in decimal points.
How are the party leaders rated?
No winner there either. In the Catholic University poll, José Luís Carneiro and Luís Montenegro get exactly the same mark — 10 on a scale of 20 — which says plenty about the electorate’s enthusiasm. Further back, Intercampus puts IL at 7.6% and Livre at 6.8%, scrapping for first place off the podium.
The backdrop isn’t kind to the government: negative ratings are up, with housing, health and education topping the list of complaints — the same week Montenegro navigated the State of the Nation debate between exam chaos and invoice rows. Official election results, when they come, are published by the CNE; until then the polls set the rhythm — margin of error always included.
Image: Carlos Luis M C da Cruz / Wikimedia Commons (CC BY-SA 3.0)
