Portugal's inflation slowed to 3% in July, but energy is still running at 8.7%
INE's flash estimate puts July inflation at 3.0% year on year, two tenths below June. Energy remains the drag, and core inflation actually ticked up.
Inflation in Portugal slowed to 3.0% in July. That is INE’s flash estimate, out this Friday, and it is two tenths below June’s 3.2%. Before anyone celebrates, it pays to look under the headline.
What is Portugal’s inflation rate right now?
The consumer price index rose 3.0% year on year, measured against July of last year. Against the previous month, prices actually fell 0.5%, largely down to the sales and the usual July seasonality. The twelve-month average sits at 2.6%.
The less cheerful part is the core measure, which strips out unprocessed food and energy because they swing hardest: it went up a tenth, to 2.6%. Translated, the structural part of prices — the bit that does not depend on the oil barrel or the weather — is stuck roughly where it was.
Why is energy still pushing prices up?
Because it is still coming off a high base. Energy products eased from 9.1% to 8.7%, which is relief at the margin but still nearly three times headline inflation. Unprocessed food braked much harder, from 5.1% to 3.7%, with summer fruit and vegetables doing their seasonal job.
Keep one caveat handy: these figures are provisional. INE publishes final data on August 12 and a tenth of a point often moves. For European context, the euro area went the other way in July, with inflation climbing to 2.9% — Portugal is no longer well above the average, but it is also no longer falling on its own.
For anyone doing the monthly arithmetic, the practical read is the familiar one: the energy bill is still the line that moves the budget most, as this summer’s cost-of-living maths already showed. Full series and methodology notes live on the INE portal.
By Beatriz Mota
Chart: Tugadaily · data INE
