Iran turned down the American offer in Islamabad, and the Strait of Hormuz stays shut
A third straight night without US or Iranian strikes, but Tehran says it rejected the proposal tabled in Islamabad and is keeping Hormuz closed.
Three quiet nights are not the same thing as peace, and Iran went out of its way to say so. Tehran announced it had rejected the proposal the United States brought to the table in Islamabad, and that it has no intention of sitting back down with Washington any time soon.
The pause itself is real. After thirteen days of near-continuous strikes, the weekend went by without American attacks, and an Iranian official said the country will hold fire for as long as the US does. What the truce does not have is a deadline, a signed page, or even an open line of communication.
Why is the Strait of Hormuz still closed?
Because Iran has not moved an inch on the decision it took at the start of the conflict. The channel that carries a huge share of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas remains shut, and Iran’s deputy foreign minister repeated that his country will not let Americans decide “the moment of peace and war”. While Hormuz stays like this, the barrel price keeps sending messages to European pumps — that same escalation had already pushed oil past 100 dollars last week.
How long will the US-Iran truce last?
Nobody knows, and that is the uncomfortable part. The American ambassador to the United Nations said Trump is giving diplomacy space and time, then added in the same breath that more military assets are heading to the region. Translation: the pause holds until it does not.
Seen from Portugal, the practical reading is simple enough. What gets decided in Hormuz shows up in fuel, then energy, then the supermarket bill, a few weeks later. The navigation rules for this stretch of water are set out by the International Maritime Organization, and that is exactly the rulebook that has been ignored since the blockade began.
For now the world is breathing. Just don’t get used to it.
Image: OpenStreetMap / Wikimedia Commons (CC BY 4.0)