Two Senate seats are still uncounted, and in Mississippi the Democrat is 2,574 votes ahead
Five days after the midterms, Democrat Scott Colom leads Republican Senator Cindy Hyde-Smith 49.1% to 48.8% in Mississippi, with mail and provisional ballots still to come and no recount process in state law. In Alaska, Mary Peltola is 637 votes ahead of Dan Sullivan.
Five days after the midterms, two US Senate seats still have no winner, and the less likely of the two is in Mississippi. On Saturday, Democrat Scott Colom had 49.1% of the vote to Republican Senator Cindy Hyde-Smith’s 48.8%, a lead of 2,574 votes with 97% counted, according to the Associated Press.
If it holds, Mississippi will send a Democrat to the Senate for the first time since 1982, as ABC News points out in its rundown of how the count works.
By our sums, 2,574 votes is under 0.3% of the more than 950,000 ballots cast. The independent, Ty Pinkins, took around 2%.
When will Mississippi know who won?
Not before Friday 13 November, the deadline for counties to certify. Two piles of ballots land before then.
The first is mail. Ballots postmarked by Election Day count if they arrive by Tuesday 10 November, and on Thursday Secretary of State Michael Watson put the number still out at about 3,300.
The second is provisional, or affidavit, ballots: people whose registration had a problem or who turned up without ID. Nobody has a firm count. Colom’s campaign guesses around 15,000, Republicans nearer 17,000, and voters without ID have until the 10th to produce it. In the counties that have opened theirs, Oktibbeha and Lafayette among them, these ballots have broken heavily for Colom.
Is there a recount in Mississippi if it stays this close?
No. The state has no recount process, automatic or requested. After certification a candidate can examine the ballot boxes and voting materials and, if they find something, go to court.
That fight has already started. The National Republican Senatorial Committee told counties to set aside and preserve every provisional ballot, and Colom’s lawyers replied that the demand has no footing in Mississippi law. Hyde-Smith’s campaign says it will “see this through to the very end”.
What’s happening in Alaska?
A slower count. Democrat Mary Peltola was 637 votes ahead of Republican Senator Dan Sullivan with roughly 74% in, and the AP tally had not moved since Wednesday. If nobody clears 50%, Alaska’s ranked-choice system kicks in, with second preferences redistributed on 18 November.
How many Senate seats could Democrats end up with?
They already hold 54 to 44, after taking both chambers of Congress on 3 November. Mississippi and Alaska together would make 56, one of them 55. The majority is settled either way. What is left to play for is the cushion against defections inside their own caucus.
Image: Gage Skidmore / Wikimedia Commons (CC BY-SA 4.0)