Portugal's external surplus halved in a year. Imports grew twice as fast as exports
The combined current and capital account surplus came to €1,201 million in the first half of 2026, down 45.8% on the same period last year. The Bank of Portugal points to the goods balance, where imports rose €4,715 million against €2,207 million for exports.
Portugal closed the first half of the year with an external surplus of €1,201 million. That is still a positive balance, which in the country’s recent economic history is not something to shrug at. It is also 45.8% smaller than in the same period of 2025, and the Bank of Portugal is fairly precise about where the margin went.
Almost all of it sits in the goods balance. Imports rose €4,715 million on the year, more than double the €2,207 million increase in exports. The goods trade deficit widened by €2,508 million. It is not that Portugal sold less abroad. It is that it bought considerably faster than it sold.
Something did cushion the fall. The capital account surplus grew by €1,325 million, and the central bank attributes that to two specific things: reinsurance payouts arriving from abroad, largely compensation for storm damage on the mainland earlier this year, and a rise in European funds reaching final beneficiaries, chiefly through the Recovery and Resilience Plan.
What it comes to as a share of GDP
The combined current and capital account surplus was worth 0.8% of half-year GDP. That is a thin cushion, but it is a cushion, and it keeps the country in the position of lending to the rest of the world rather than borrowing from it.
That net lending capacity produced a financial account balance of €630 million, against €1,862.6 million a year earlier. The Bank of Portugal names two sectors as the main contributors: general government, through a rise in its deposits abroad, and insurers and pension funds, through purchases of debt securities issued by non-residents. Moving the other way, the central bank itself and non-financial companies recorded the largest falls in net assets.
June on its own
Taken alone, June produced an external surplus of €348 million, €359 million less than in June 2025. The culprit is the same one: a €767 million deterioration in the goods deficit, partly offset by gains on the capital and primary income accounts.
These numbers are worth reading alongside another figure published this week: firms with foreign capital make up just 3% of Portuguese companies but account for 46% of exports. When the export engine is that concentrated, a half-year in which imports accelerate and sales do not keep pace is less a statistical wobble than a structural signal. The full release is published on BPstat, the Bank of Portugal’s statistics portal.
By Beatriz Mota
Chart: Tugadaily · data Banco de Portugal
