US home sales sink to their slowest pace since 2010 as mortgage rates top 7%
The National Association of Realtors counted 3.75 million sales at an annual rate in October, down 5.5% on the month and 8.8% on the year. The 30-year fixed rate averaged 7.33%, against 6.25% a year earlier, yet the median price still edged up 0.4% to $416,700.
Americans bought fewer existing homes in October than in any month since August 2010. The National Association of Realtors counted 3.75 million sales at a seasonally adjusted annual rate, down 5.5% from September and 8.8% from a year earlier.
NAR’s chief economist, Lawrence Yun, put it down to borrowing costs: buying is hard when mortgage rates sit at their highest since 2000.
How high are US mortgage rates right now?
The 30-year fixed rate, the standard American home loan, averaged 7.33% in October according to Freddie Mac. It was 6.86% in September and 6.25% a year ago.
There was a little relief this week. In Thursday’s survey Freddie Mac put the 30-year rate at 7.11%, its fourth weekly fall in a row, down from 7.18%. A year ago it was 6.24%.
We ran the numbers on a home at October’s median price of $416,700 with 20% down. At 7.11% a 30-year loan costs about $2,243 a month. At last year’s rate it would be $2,050. That is close to $200 extra every month, or roughly $2,300 a year, for the same house.
If nobody is buying, why aren’t prices falling?
Because owners aren’t selling either. The median price rose 0.4% on the year to $416,700, the 40th straight month of annual gains. Small, but still up.
Supply has loosened a bit: 1.59 million homes on the market, or 5.1 months at the current sales pace, against 4.4 months a year ago. NAR’s affordability index slipped from 107.3 to 100.7.
The drop was uneven. The West lost 14.5% of its sales in a year, the Northeast just 4.1%. In the South, the biggest region, the median price actually dipped 0.4%.
First-time buyers are the ones being squeezed out. They made up 29% of purchases, down from 32% a year ago, while investors and second-home buyers rose from 16% to 20%. Almost three in ten deals were paid in cash.
The White House has tried to step in: in October Trump signed another executive order aimed at cutting housing costs, his third on the subject this year.
How does that compare with mortgage rates in Portugal?
Portuguese borrowers pay far less, and on different terms. Most loans here track Euribor on variable or mixed rates rather than a 30-year fix. According to Portugal’s statistics office, INE, contracts signed in the three months to September carried an implied rate of 2.959%, and the whole stock of outstanding home loans 3.194%.
By our sums, the average US rate in October sits 4.37 percentage points above what recent Portuguese borrowers are paying. Portugal’s squeeze is the price of the house, not the price of money. Even so, banks across the euro area are reporting fewer and fewer people applying for mortgages.
NAR reckons there is plenty of pent-up demand waiting for cheaper credit. If the last four weeks of falling rates carry on, November’s figures will show whether it is right.
Illustrative · Photo: Kindel Media / Pexels