Business 30 July 2026

Portugal's economy looks to have grown again in the second quarter after a flat start to the year

The CIP/ISEG barometer points to 0.4% quarter-on-quarter growth in Portugal in the second quarter of 2026, around 2% year-on-year, with business confidence improving.

Portugal’s economy is estimated to have grown 0.4% in the second quarter compared with the previous three months, roughly 2% year-on-year. That is the reading from the joint CIP and ISEG barometer published this week, and it lands ahead of the official number from the national statistics office — but it sets the tone.

How much did Portugal’s economy grow in the second quarter?

Zero point four percent quarter-on-quarter, which sounds modest until you remember where it starts from. The first quarter came in flat — no growth at all between January and March, despite a 2.3% year-on-year figure that was largely inherited from the previous year. Moving again in the second quarter is the difference between a pause and a stall.

Why was the first quarter flat?

For the same reason most of Europe took a knock: the energy shock. Higher prices eat into company margins and household purchasing power, and domestic demand feels it first. What the barometer now signals is that the external side helped offset part of that slowdown — exports and tourism pulling while domestic consumption still drags its feet.

There is a second signal worth watching alongside it: business confidence improved in the second quarter across almost every sector. Confidence is not an order book and it is not a hire, but it usually arrives before both. And the labour market has held up, with unemployment running close to 5.5% and none of the jolts feared at the start of the year.

This fits the story we have been telling for a while: Portugal has been growing faster than the eurozone average without any of that turning into euphoria. It grows a little quicker than its neighbours, from a lower base, and with a reliance on the outside world that means any bump abroad is felt here within weeks.

The official second-quarter GDP figure comes from INE, and that is the one that goes in the textbooks. Until then, the reasonable read is this: the economy has not stopped, but it is not accelerating either. It is moving.

By Beatriz Mota

Image: Geerd-Olaf Freyer from Aachen, Deutschland / Wikimedia Commons (CC BY-SA 2.0)

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Markets tracker: gold, the Fed, oil and stocks

Our running tracker of the markets that move savings in Portugal — gold, Fed and ECB decisions, oil and stocks. Updated whenever there is news.

This is our running tracker of the markets that move savings in Portugal. Instead of a fresh article for every swing, we update this page whenever something matters: gold, Federal Reserve and European Central Bank decisions, oil and the main stock indices. For the background on the Portuguese economy, see our mid-year review. Official data is at the Bank of Portugal.

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