Your Portuguese mortgage does not move the day the ECB does
The deposit facility rate goes to 2.5% on 16 September, the second increase this year. What reaches your monthly payment is Euribor, and Euribor only reaches you on your contract's reset date.
The ECB Governing Council raised its three key rates by 25 basis points on Thursday, taking the deposit facility rate to 2.5% with effect from 16 September. It is the second rise this year, and energy is the reason. Inflation is still running above target, and the bank’s own staff projections put it at an average of 3% in 2026, 2.5% in 2027 and 2.1% only in 2028.
Growth is projected at 0.9% this year, 1.4% next year and 1.5% in 2028. That is not a stall. It is an economy moving slowly while prices refuse to come down as fast as Frankfurt would like.
What actually reaches your monthly payment
If you hold a mortgage in Portugal, none of this lands on your account tomorrow. It lands through Euribor, and Euribor lands on you at your contract’s reset date, not on the day the announcement is made.
So a loan indexed to 12-month Euribor with a reset in March is already locked to a rate set at an earlier moment, whatever Frankfurt did this week. Borrowers on three-month or six-month Euribor feel each move sooner and more often. The mechanism is the same one behind the September payment resets, with 12-month Euribor pushing past 3% at the start of the month.
The rest of the variables belong to you rather than to the ECB: the spread you negotiated, the capital still outstanding, the years left to run. Two neighbours who owe the same amount can see very different increases in the same week.
The national picture
Portugal reaches this decision with its public accounts in reasonable shape, which matters when borrowing costs are rising for everyone. Fitch upgraded the country to A+ earlier this month, and DBRS ranks Portugal among the euro area economies least exposed to more expensive sovereign funding.
The calendar matters too. If the ECB projections hold, inflation only returns near 2% in 2028, which suggests this tightening cycle has not closed the door yet. Before doing the arithmetic in your head, go and check the reset date on your contract.
By Beatriz Mota
Image: Dr. Thomas Liptak / Wikimedia Commons (CC BY-SA 4.0)