Portugal's statistics office recounted its emigrants. The new figure is 782,000 in five years
INE has redone its 2021-2025 emigration numbers from administrative records and the total nearly quintupled. The big change is who gets counted: foreigners who drop off the registers are now in, and in 2024 and 2025 they were most of the people leaving.
Portugal’s National Statistics Institute (INE) has redone its sums, and emigration over the past five years turns out to be far bigger than anyone thought. Under the revised series, which Jornal de Negócios sets out from Público’s reporting, 782,248 people left the country between 2021 and 2025.
For 2021 to 2024 alone, the old estimate was about 124,000 departures. The new one is above 602,000. Nearly five times as many.
Who left
The figure that changes the story is nationality. Until now, emigration meant Portuguese people moving abroad. The new series also counts foreign residents who stop showing up in the official records.
They are now the majority. In 2025, 179,948 people left: 84,579 Portuguese and 95,365 foreign nationals, so 53% of those leaving did not hold a Portuguese passport. In 2024 it was much the same, 52%. In 2021 it was 44%.
Portuguese emigration was also bigger than recorded. For 2021, INE had counted 25,079 permanent Portuguese emigrants. The revision puts it at 67,754, about 2.7 times as many.
Why the numbers moved
Until 2020, the estimates leaned on the census and sample surveys. From 2021, INE switched to cross-checking several administrative databases to work out who actually lives in the country, and that caught departures the old method missed.
Not everyone accepts that every exit from the records is an emigrant. Rui Pena Pires, former head of the Emigration Observatory, calls the method better but points out that dropping off the registers does not prove someone moved abroad, and that some people come back without being counted. The Observatory, which counts only Portuguese citizens, put the five-year total at no more than 350,000.
What it says about immigration
More foreigners are leaving, but even more are arriving. In the population estimates INE published in June, net migration for 2025 was positive by 70,862 people and foreign residents reached 1,597,539, or 14% of the population.
The figures suggest that, for many foreigners, Portugal is a stage on the way rather than the final stop. On the Portuguese side, one of the biggest communities abroad is still in Britain, where the new settlement rules leave EU Settlement Scheme holders alone.
Image: Daniel from Glasgow / Wikimedia Commons (CC BY 2.0)