House prices are falling worldwide. Portugal's went up 15.2%
The Bank for International Settlements looked at 57 economies. Real house prices fell in 14 of them and fell 1.2% globally — and nowhere rose faster than Portugal.
If you want to understand Portuguese housing, the most useful thing you can do is look somewhere else. The Bank for International Settlements — the central bankers’ central bank — has just run the numbers on 57 economies. Real house prices rose in 39 of them, held steady in four and fell in 14. Nowhere did they rise as fast as here.
Portugal posted 15.2% real annual growth in the first quarter, meaning after inflation has been stripped out. North Macedonia came second at 12.5%, Bulgaria third at 10.8%. That is unusual company for a eurozone country, particularly since the eurozone average was 2.6%.
Why the world fell and Portugal did not
Real prices worldwide dropped 1.2% over the year, a steeper fall than the 0.5% recorded at the end of 2025. The BIS commentary puts much of that down to Asia, where China fell 7.1% and Indonesia 3.2%. But the declines are not confined there. Canada lost 7%, and the United States and the United Kingdom lost 2% each.
Portugal’s explanation is depressingly familiar. Far more people want to buy than there are homes reaching the market, especially in the price bracket where most people actually live. Until that changes, interest rates and inflation can cool demand without cooling prices.
Spain is rising too, five points behind
The neighbour is worth a look. Spain recorded 9.9% real growth, Italy 3.8%, while France and Germany both slipped slightly. Australia rose 6%. Which is what makes the eurozone comparison the telling one: Portugal is climbing almost six times faster than the bloc it belongs to.
That fits what the domestic figures have been saying. The pace is easing, but it is easing from a very high base, as our running tracker of Portuguese house prices shows, and household budgets are being squeezed further by inflation at 3.3%.
The government points to its housing tax package, with VAT on construction cut to 6%, and to simplified planning permission. Neither builds a house this year. Taking the longer view, the BIS also notes that real house prices globally now sit 20% above where they landed after the 2007-2009 financial crisis. Anyone house-hunting in Portugal worked that out without a report.
Chart: Tugadaily, with BIS data
