Fitch lifts Portugal to A+, the fourth upgrade in two years
Fitch moved Portugal from A to A+ with a stable outlook on Friday, putting it level with France and Belgium. The agency now sees public debt at 87% of GDP by the end of 2026 and a budget surplus of 0.1%.
Fitch has raised Portugal’s sovereign debt rating from A to A+, with a stable outlook. It is the fourth upgrade in two years, the second from this agency since April 2024, and it puts Portugal level with France and Belgium on the agency’s scale.
The reasoning comes in three parts: falling public debt, sturdier public accounts, and the growth outlook. Fitch expects the debt ratio to end this year at 87% of GDP, alongside a budget surplus of 0.1%. It sees the economy growing 2.1% in 2026, above the euro area average, driven mostly by investment.
What one extra letter actually does
Nothing to your mortgage payment this week. A rating is one agency’s read on how likely a state is to pay what it owes, and the practical effect lands on the lending side: better notation, lower yield demanded at auction. That yield then works its way into the budget, into the slice spent every year servicing interest rather than on schools or hospitals.
Finance Minister Joaquim Miranda Sarmento called it “a great victory for Portugal”, noting that it arrives in a context “still marked by geopolitical and economic uncertainty and instability”.
The figure that still has to close
Fitch’s 87% projection for December needs context. In June the debt ratio stood at 92.9% of GDP, after a single month in which the stock grew by more than five billion euros. Quarterly ratios swing with the treasury’s cash position, and the number that counts for European comparison is the one at year end. Even so, getting to 87% by December needs a good second half.
One more piece of the picture changed last week. The Recovery and Resilience Plan closed on 31 August, and with it ends the largest injection of European funds the Portuguese economy has ever had. The 2.1% growth Fitch pencils in for 2026 now has to come from somewhere else.
By Beatriz Mota
Image: Government of Portugal / portugal.gov.pt (image bank)